Monte Carlo Methods and Stochastic Volatility
Dipartimento di Scienze delle Decisioni
Universita Bocconi, Milano
November 23rd to 27th 2009
Course material: PDF FILE WITH 224 SLIDES
Course schedule
| Class | Day | Date | Time | Room | Topic |
| 1st | Monday | Nov 23 | 16.30-18.00 | N1-7 velodromo | Normal dynamic linear models |
| 2nd | Tuesday | Nov 24 | 10.30-12.00 | SDA 01 via Bocconi | Nonnormal, nonlinear dynamic models |
| 3rd | Tuesday | Nov 24 | 16.30-18.00 | N17 velodromo | Stochastic volatility models |
| 4th | Wednesday | Nov 25 | 10.30-12.00 | 4-C via Sarfatti | More on SV models |
| 5th | Thursday | Nov 26 | 10.30-12.00 | 4-1 via Sarfatti | Sequential Monte Carlo methods |
| SEMINAR | Nov 26 | 16.30-18.00 | Particle Learning for General Mixtures (talk slides) | ||
| 6th | Friday | Nov 27 | 10.30-11.50 | N1-2 velodromo | Particle learning (PL) |
| 7th | Friday | Nov 27 | 12.10-13.30 | N1-2 velodromo | More on PL |
R code
- Dynamic linear models: dlm.R – lineargrowthmodel.R – dlm-ffbs.R
- Non-linear dynamic model: nonlineardynamicmodel.R
- Stochastic volatility model: sv-ar1.R
- SISR filter: dlm-smc.R – bootstrapfilter-stepbystep.R – bootstrapfilter-inclassBocconi.R
- Particle smoother: dlm-smc-smoothing.R
- LW filter: dlm-smc-learningsig2-LW.R – nonlinearmodel-LW.R – sv-LW.R
- PL: dlm-smc-learningsig2-PL.R
- LW, LWFA, APFSS an PL: lw-lwfa-apfss-pl.R
Basic references
- 1. Carlin, Polson and Stoffer (1992) A Monte Carlo approach to nonnormal and nonlinear state space modeling.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 493-500. - 2. Carvalho, Johannes, Lopes and Polson (2008) Particle Learning and Smoothing.
Technical Report. The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. - 3. Eraker, Johannes and Polson (2003) The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns.
Journal of Finance, 58, 1269-1300. - 4. Gamerman and Lopes (2006) MCMC: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference.
Baton Rouge: Chapman & Hall/CRC. - 5. Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (1994) Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models.
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 371-89. - 6. Johannes and Polson (2009) MCMC methods for Financial Econometrics.
In Handbook of Financial Econometrics (Eds Y. Ait-Sahalia and L. Hansen). Oxford: Elsevier, 1-72. - 7. Johannes, Polson and Stroud (2009) Optimal Filtering of Jump Diffusions: Extracting Latent States from Asset Prices.
Review of Financial Studies, 22, 2559-2599. - 8. Kim, Shephard and Chib (1994) Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models.
Review of Economic Studies, 65, 361-393. - 9. Liu and West (2001) Combined parameters and state estimation in simulation-based filtering.
In Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice (Eds. A. Doucet, N. de Freitas and N. Gordon).
New York: Springer-Verlag, 197-223. - 10. Gordon, Salmond and Smith (1993) Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation.
Radar and Signal Processing, IEE Proceedings F 140, 107-113. - 11. Migon, Gamerman, Lopes and Ferreira (2005) Dynamic models.
In Handbook of Statistics, Volume 25: Bayesian Thinking, Modeling and Computation (Eds. D. Dey and C. R. Rao),
Amsterdam: Elsevier, 553-588. - 12. Petris, Petrone and Campagnoli (2009) Dynamic Linear Models with R.
New York: Springer. - 13. Pitt and Shephard (1999) Filtering via simulation: auxiliary particle filters.
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 590-599. - 14. Polson, Lopes and Carvalho (2009) Bayesian Statistics with a Smile: a Resampling-Sampling Perspective.
Technical Report. The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. - 15. Polson, Stroud and Muller (2008) Practical Filtering with Sequential Parameter Learning.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 70, 413-428. - 16. Prado and West (2010) Time Series: Modelling, Computation and Inference.
Baton Rouge: Chapman & Hall/CRC. - 17. Storvik (2002) Particle filters in state space models with the presence of unknown static parameters.
IEEE Transactions of Signal Processing, 50, 281-289. - 18. West and Harrison (1997) Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd edition).
New York: Springer-Verlag.
Other useful links