#########################################################################################################
#
# Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)
#
# Estimates Developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation 
# (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA, UNPD).
#
#########################################################################################################
#
# Hedibert Freitas Lopes
# Associate Professor of Econometrics and Statistics
# The University of Chicago Booth School of Business
# Email: hlopes@chicagobooth.edu
# URL: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/hedibert.lopes
#
#########################################################################################################
country=c("Afghanistan","Albania","Algeria","Andorra","Angola","Antigua and Barbuda","Argentina","Armenia",
"Australia","Austria","Azerbaijan","Bahamas, The","Bahrain","Bangladesh","Barbados","Belarus","Belgium",
"Belize","Benin","Bhutan","Bolivia","Bosnia and Herzegovina","Botswana","Brazil","Brunei Darussalam",
"Bulgaria","Burkina Faso","Burundi","Cambodia","Cameroon","Canada","Cape Verde","Central African Republic",
"Chad","Chile","China","Colombia","Comoros","Congo, Dem. Rep.","Congo, Rep.","Costa Rica","Cote d'Ivoire",
"Croatia","Cuba","Cyprus","Czech Republic","Denmark","Djibouti","Dominica","Dominican Republic","Ecuador",
"Egypt, Arab Rep.","El Salvador","Equatorial Guinea","Eritrea","Estonia","Ethiopia","Fiji","Finland",
"France","Gabon","Gambia, The","Georgia","Germany","Ghana","Greece","Grenada","Guatemala","Guinea",
"Guinea-Bissau","Guyana","Haiti","Honduras","Hungary","Iceland","India","Indonesia","Iran, Islamic Rep.",
"Iraq","Ireland","Israel","Italy","Jamaica","Japan","Jordan","Kazakhstan","Kenya","Kiribati",
"Korea, Dem. Rep.","Korea, Rep.","Kuwait","Kyrgyz Republic","Lao PDR","Latvia","Lebanon","Lesotho",
"Liberia","Libya","Liechtenstein","Lithuania","Luxembourg","Macedonia, FYR","Madagascar","Malawi",
"Malaysia","Maldives","Mali","Malta","Marshall Islands","Mauritania","Mauritius","Mexico",
"Micronesia, Fed. Sts.","Moldova","Monaco","Mongolia","Montenegro","Morocco","Mozambique","Myanmar",
"Namibia","Nepal","Netherlands","New Zealand","Nicaragua","Niger","Nigeria","Norway","Oman","Pakistan",
"Palau","Panama","Papua New Guinea","Paraguay","Peru","Philippines","Poland","Portugal","Qatar","Romania",
"Russian Federation","Rwanda","Samoa","San Marino","Sao Tome and Principe","Saudi Arabia","Senegal",
"Serbia","Seychelles","Sierra Leone","Singapore","Slovak Republic","Slovenia","Solomon Islands",
"Somalia","South Africa","South Sudan","Spain","Sri Lanka","St. Kitts and Nevis","St. Lucia",
"St. Vincent and the Grenadines","Sudan","Suriname","Swaziland","Sweden","Switzerland",
"Syrian Arab Republic","Tajikistan","Tanzania","Thailand","Timor-Leste","Togo","Tonga",
"Trinidad and Tobago","Tunisia","Turkey","Turkmenistan","Tuvalu","Uganda","Ukraine",
"United Arab Emirates","United Kingdom","United States","Uruguay","Uzbekistan","Vanuatu",
"Venezuela, RB","Vietnam","West Bank and Gaza","Yemen, Rep.","Zambia","Zimbabwe")

code=c("AFG","ALB","DZA","AND","AGO","ATG","ARG","ARM","AUS","AUT","AZE","BHS","BHR","BGD","BRB","BLR",
"BEL","BLZ","BEN","BTN","BOL","BIH","BWA","BRA","BRN","BGR","BFA","BDI","KHM","CMR","CAN","CPV","CAF",
"TCD","CHL","CHN","COL","COM","COD","COG","CRI","CIV","HRV","CUB","CYP","CZE","DNK","DJI","DMA","DOM",
"ECU","EGY","SLV","GNQ","ERI","EST","ETH","FJI","FIN","FRA","GAB","GMB","GEO","DEU","GHA","GRC","GRD",
"GTM","GIN","GNB","GUY","HTI","HND","HUN","ISL","IND","IDN","IRN","IRQ","IRL","ISR","ITA","JAM","JPN",
"JOR","KAZ","KEN","KIR","PRK","KOR","KWT","KGZ","LAO","LVA","LBN","LSO","LBR","LBY","LIE","LTU","LUX",
"MKD","MDG","MWI","MYS","MDV","MLI","MLT","MHL","MRT","MUS","MEX","FSM","MDA","MCO","MNG","MNE","MAR",
"MOZ","MMR","NAM","NPL","NLD","NZL","NIC","NER","NGA","NOR","OMN","PAK","PLW","PAN","PNG","PRY","PER",
"PHL","POL","PRT","QAT","ROU","RUS","RWA","WSM","SMR","STP","SAU","SEN","SRB","SYC","SLE","SGP","SVK",
"SVN","SLB","SOM","ZAF","SSD","ESP","LKA","KNA","LCA","VCT","SDN","SUR","SWZ","SWE","CHE","SYR","TJK",
"TZA","THA","TLS","TGO","TON","TTO","TUN","TUR","TKM","TUV","UGA","UKR","ARE","GBR","USA","URY","UZB",
"VUT","VEN","VNM","PSE","YEM","ZMB","ZWE")

year = 1960:2011
n    = length(year)
p    = length(code)
data = matrix(scan("mortality-under5.txt"),byrow=TRUE,ncol=n)
nobs = rep(0,p)
full = NULL
for (i in 1:p){
  nobs[i] = sum(data[i,]<9999)
  if (nobs[i]==n){
    full = c(full,i)
  }
}

pdf(file="mortality-under5.pdf",width=12,height=10)
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
plot(table(nobs[nobs<n]),xlab="number of years of data",ylab="Frequency")
title(paste(sum(nobs==n)," of 193 countries with no missings",sep=""))

par(mfrow=c(2,2))
for (i in 1:p){
plot((n-nobs[i]+1):n,data[i,data[i,]<9999],xlab="YEARS",
     ylab="MORTALITY",axes=FALSE,xlim=c(1,n),ylim=c(0,500),type="b")
axis(2);box();axis(1,at=1:n,lab=year)
title(country[i])
}
  
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
boxplot.matrix(data[full,],names=year,xlab="YEARS",ylab="MORTALITY RATE UNDER 5")
  

data.full = data[full,]
country.full = country[full]
p1 = nrow(data.full)
betas = rep(0,p1)
for (i in 1:p1)
  betas[i] = lm(data.full[i,]~year)$coef[2]

order.full = order(betas)
betas1 = betas[order.full]
country1 = country.full[order.full]


par(mfrow=c(1,1))
plot(c(0,21),c(0,21),xlab="",ylab="",col=0,axes=FALSE)
title("Slope coefficients \n mortality = a + b*time")
for (i in 1:20){
  text(1,20-i+1,country1[i])
  text(4,20-i+1,round(betas1[i],3))
}
for (i in (p1-19):p1){
  text(11,p1-i+1,country1[i])
  text(14,p1-i+1,round(betas1[i],3))
}
text(2,21,"Top 20 countries",col=2)
text(12,21,"Bottom 20 countries",col=2)

L = seq(25,150,by=25)
nL = length(L)
m  = matrix(0,nL,n)
for (i in 1:nL)
  for (j in 1:n)
    m[i,j] = 100*mean((data[,j]<L[i])&(data[,j]<99999))

par(mfrow=c(2,3))
for (i in 1:nL){
  plot(year,m[i,],xlab="YEARS",ylab="Percentage of countries",ylim=c(0,100))
  title(paste("% of countries with rates below ",L[i]," per 1000",sep=""))
  abline(h=10,lty=3)
  abline(h=50,lty=3)
  abline(h=90,lty=3)
}
dev.off()